was experiencing). Canby’s growth is now increasing much like it did in the 1970’s, with growth rates outpacing the Portland metropolitan area. Canby’s population growth continues to be significantly higher than the State of Oregon.

Table 2-1 Population of Canby, Portland, and Oregon:  1970-1999
Year	Canby	Percent Change	Portland Metro	Percent Change	Oregon	Percent Change
1970	3,818		824,926		2,091,533
1980	7,659	101%	1,242,645	51%	2,633,105	26%
1990	8,983	17%	1,477,895	19%	2,842,321	8%
2000	12,790	42%	1,874,449	27%	3,421,399	20%

Sources: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (www.oea.das.state.or.us/econ.htm) 
PSU Center for Population Research and Census  
U.S. Bureau of Census 

As Table 2-2 shows, Canby’s population continued to grow rapidly in the 1990’s. According to the U.S. Census, Canby’s population was 12,790 in 2000. This reflects a 42.4 percent increase in Canby’s population between 1990 and 2000. This compares to a 20.4 percent increase for the state of Oregon during the same time.

Table 2-2 Canby and Oregon Population Estimates
Year	Canby	Percent Change	Oregon	Percent Change
1990	8,983		2,842,321
1991	9,370	4.3%	2,930,000	3.1%
1992	9,565	2.1%	2,979,000	1.7%
1993	9,815	2.6%	3,038,000	2.0%
1994	10,405	6.0%	3,082,000	1.4%
1995	10,855	4.3%	3,132,000	1.6%
1996	11,430	5.3%	3,181,000	1.6%
1997	11,725	2.6%	3,217,000	1.1%
1998	12,465	6.3%	3,267,550	1.6%
1999	12,595	1.0%	3,300,800	1.0%
2000	12,790	1.5%	3,421,399	3.7%
1990-2000 Change	3,807		579,078
1990-2000 Percent Change	42.4%		20.4%
1990-2000 AAGR	3.6%		1.9%

Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (www.oea.das.state.or.us/econ.htm)
PSU Center for Population Research and Census

As shown in Table 2-3, the Oregon Economic Development Department forecasts that Canby’s population will grow at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent until 2001 in the one-mile radius around the center of town, at 99E and Ivy (an area slightly smaller than current city limits). Within the five to ten mile radius of the town center, the average annual growth rate until 2001 is projected to be slightly lower, at 2.6 percent. Note that the 2001 population projection is smaller than the 2000 Census count. The projections shown in Table 2-3 were completed in 1997 and underestimated population growth in Canby.

Source:  Oregon Economic Development Department and Equifax National Decision Systems  
* Average Annual Growth Rate

Table 2-4 shows the 2000 Census population for Canby and the City's coordinated population forecast. Projections show that Canby is expected to grow significantly in the next 20 years, reaching 21,000 by 2020. This is a 64.2 percent increase from the 2000 population of 12,790, and represents a five percent average annual growth rate between 2000 and 2020.

Source: PSU Center for Population Research and Census Canby Land Needs Study (OTAK 1999)

Source:  City of Canby Planning Department
Note: Single Family housing includes manufactured homes

Table 2-5 breaks down each age category into its percent of the total population as well as defining the amount of change per category between 1990 and 2000. It also shows the percent change from 1990 to 2000 and the change in percent per age category between 1990 and 2000. Information per age category is useful to the Canby Parks and Recreation Department in that it allows the City to plan for recreational demand for programs and parks amenities, and target projects to age-appropriate activities and amenities.

Table 2-5 Age:  Persons and Percent of Population in Canby
1990			2000*		Change		Change in Percent
Age Groups	No. of Persons	Percent of Pop.	No. of Persons	Percent of Pop.	Amount	Percent	Percent 1990-2000
Under 5	715	8.0	1,010	7.6	295	41.3	-0.4
5 to 17	1,877	20.9	2,817	21.2	940	50.1	0.3
18 to 24	846	9.4	1,223	9.2	377	44.6	-0.2
25 to 34	1,330	14.8	1,741	13.1	411	30.9	-1.7
35 to 44	1,405	15.6	2,073	15.6	668	47.5	0
45 to 54	888	9.9	1,781	13.4	893	100.6	3.5
55 to 64	609	6.8	1,037	7.8	428	70.3	1
65+	1,313	14.6	1,635	12.3	322	24.5	-2.3
Total	8,983	100	13,317**	100	4,334	48.2
Median Age	32.4		34.2

Source: U.S. Bureau of Census  
**Claritas, Inc. (Estimate of 2000 population by age)  
***Due to rounding off estimates, this total is slightly higher than the 13,290 people projected by Claritas, Inc.

Source:  U.S.

Bureau of Census  
*Claritas (Estimate of 2000 population by race and ethnicity)  
** The 1990 and 2000 Census indicate that people who declared themselves of Hispanic origin in some Census questions are often also considered white when asked about their race. This means that many people are included in the percentages for both the white and Hispanic origin categories.

The Canby School District reports that the number of Hispanic students is continuing to increase at a greater rate than the total student enrollment. Hispanic enrollment has increased from 267 in 1991 to 487 in 1998, a 39.5 percent increase. During the same period, total student enrollment increased only 14.9 percent, which is significantly slower.

Source:  Oregon Department of Education

As shown in Table 2-8, the Oregon Department of Education reports that minority student enrollment comprised 11.4 percent of total student enrollment in the Canby School District in 1998. Hispanic students alone represented nearly 9.5 percent of total enrollment. Table 2-8 also shows that while the school district boundaries extend beyond Canby, much of the minority population is concentrated in only a few schools, with some experiencing large increases. For example, William Knight Elementary minority enrollment increased from 4.6 percent in 1996 to 16.8 percent in 1998. Other schools seeing large increases are Eccles Elementary, which increased from 17.2 percent minority enrollment in 1996 to 20.7 percent in 1998, most of that being new Hispanic students, and Canby High School, which increased from 6.8 percent to 9.2 percent for the same time period.

Income

As Table 2-9 shows, Canby’s median household income increased from almost $18,000 to over $30,000 between 1980 and 1990.[2 Not corrected for inflation]

  In 1990, Canby’s median household income was approximately $3,000 greater than the median household income in Oregon overall.

Canby also has a lower percentage of its residents living in poverty than in Oregon overall. While Canby’s poverty rate only increased .2 percent, from 8.4 percent in 1980 to 8.6 percent in 1990, the statewide poverty rate increased 1.7 percent, from 10.7 percent in 1980 to 12.4 percent in 1990.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Census
PSU Center for Population Research
Note:  income figures not adjusted for inflation

Findings  

Canby’s landscape and population is changing rapidly, and its park and recreation system will need to respond to these changes. Canby is quickly leaving its agricultural roots behind and becoming more similar to its metropolitan neighbors to the north in its affluence, ethnic diversity and rate of growth. Some of the major socioeconomic and land use trends affecting the future provision of park and recreation services in Canby are as follows:  

Canby is experiencing population growth at a significantly higher rate than the statewide average. By the year 2020, the City's coordinated population projection indicates Canby will have 21,000 residents, resulting in a 64 percent increase from 2000. This influx of residents will increasingly strain Canby’s ability to provide quality park and recreation facilities and services.

Single and multi-family housing is being developed at a rapid pace, especially on the fringes of the urbanized area. Portland’s land use policies could increase the demand for additional housing in and around Canby in the future as people seek homes in less dense urban areas.

The residents least served by park and recreation facilities live in Canby’s far northwest, northeast and south neighborhoods.

Canby’s population is aging, following statewide and nationwide trends. Many sections of Canby’s population are growing, especially those in the 5 to 17, 45 to 54, and 55 to 64 year old age brackets. People between 45 and 64 years old continue to be one of the fastest growing segments of the population. Because there is a correlation between age and mobility limitations, meeting the needs of mobility-limited residents as they age will become increasingly important.

The number of children in Canby is also increasing as the population increases. Birth rates are rising and families are moving to Canby with young children. There will be an increase in elementary and high school enrollment levels in the near future, which will increase the need for park and recreation facilities and programs for youth.  

Canby is growing more ethnically diverse. The Hispanic population is the largest and fastest growing minority population in Canby. Hispanic children comprise 9.5 percent of Canby School District’s enrollment. Because of this growth, understanding and meeting the park and recreation needs of minority residents is becoming increasingly urgent.

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